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WSによるとマンハッタンの不動産売買は件数は落ちたけど、価格は上昇とのこと。condos and cooperativesの売買は、１Qは、34％ダウンの2,282 units。一方で、median priceは945千ドル。。。ウルトラハイエンドの物件だけでの数字で、しかも２件４０百万米ドルの案件が入っているからだそうだけど。
供給が増える、在庫が上がる、在庫期間が長引くということがあっても、マンハッタンは強い。
高い理由。�〜芦鵑了�より、投機的なビル案件がかなり少ないから、�▲侫蹈螢�/キャルフォルニアと違ってマンハッタン中心にはサブプラ物件がいないから、��ドル安で、欧州/アジア/中東のお金持ちが買いに来るから。
��は誇張に聞こえるが実際正しい。シンガポールのオーチャードも、周りの国のお金持ちが買いに来るし、価格が落ちているとは言え、今なお健在。マンハッタンは、やはり別格。
Housing Slump -- in New York ?
Manhattan Loses
Bulletproof Luster
As Home Sales Fall
By MICHAEL CORKERY
April 2, 2008; Page C15
Long insulated from the gale-force winds buffeting most U.S. housing markets, the New York City market is showing signs of softening just as Wall Street layoffs could put a further damper on demand.
Manhattan has been one of the hottest housing markets in the country, with prices of many homes more than doubling since 2003. But real-estate agents agree that tightening lending standards and eroding consumer confidence -- which have crippled housing markets across the country -- are starting to slow the New York City juggernaut.
"I don't know anyone in the industry who can say that their business was the same as it was last year," says Doug Heddings, a senior vice president at Prudential Douglas Elliman, who runs a sales team in Manhattan.
Just how much of a slowdown, though, is a matter of debate. Sales volume of condos and cooperatives in Manhattan dropped 34%, to 2,282 units, in the first quarter from a year ago, an unusually sharp decline, according to Miller Samuel Inc., an appraisal-and-research firm that tracks New York real estate. But a separate report issued Wednesday by Halstead Property LLC, a Manhattan-based real-estate firm, showed a 1% decline in sales in Manhattan when compared with a year ago.
Not all the news is bad. Miller Samuel and Halstead agree prices are rising. The median price for Manhattan homes rose 13%, to $945,276, in the first quarter, according to Miller Samuel. Halstead said the price increase was partly driven by sales at the ultrahigh end of the market, including two homes that sold for more than $40 million each.
But slowing sales volume, not lower prices, can be an early sign of a weakening market. Meanwhile, many brokers agree that the number of homes for sale is rising and buyers are becoming more tepid. "We are not looking at a robust real-estate economy going forward," says Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers.
Another cause for concern is the number of condominiums being built amid the slowing market. This year, developers are expected to complete 10,200 condos, more than double the 4,100 that were built in 2006, according to REIS Inc., a real-estate research firm.
Agents aren't anticipating the sharp drops in prices that hammered New York real estate during the Wall Street collapse in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when about 100,000 people lost their jobs, according to Moody's Economy.com. The research firm estimates about 33,000 people will lose their jobs amid the current financial stress.
Several factors may save the city's real-estate market from distress. For one, there has been far less speculative building than before the last crash. Secondly, Manhattan has largely skirted the subprime-mortgage debacle that sank markets in Florida and California. That is partly because many co-op boards require sizable personal assets and an average down payment of 35%, says Mr. Miller.
Also helping New York sales are wealthy buyers from Europe, Asia and the Middle East who are taking advantage of the weak dollar to snap up multimillion-dollar condos and townhomes as second and even third homes.
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