Manufacturing Tumbles Globally

WSJ週末号のトップは製造業がグローバルベースで失速している記事。

中国の製造業が後退しているというものの、それ以上に欧米日は深刻。昨年の９月以降の
日本の製造業の新規受注の落ち込みの激しさは驚くべきものがある。

ドル信認低下による円高の進行がメインシナリオと考えられているが、
日本経済の失速スピードの加速化に加え、イスラエルのガザ地区侵攻等やロシアの動向で、
有事のドル買いによって、円安方向に進むシナリオ顕在化の可能性も高まりつつある。

株も為替も、非常にボラタイルな展開が年初から見込まれる。

Manufacturing activity around the world fell sharply in December, suggesting that the U.S. recession will extend well into 2009, if not longer, and that unemployment will rise globally.

A broad index of change in U.S. manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level since June 1980, when the economy was on the verge of a severe double-dip recession, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Not one of the 18 industries surveyed reported growth, and some, such as wood products, have been in decline for more than two years.

New orders, a gauge of future activity, sank to the lowest index level since records began 60 years ago. Exports and production also sank, and employment levels declined. The downturn in demand for manufactured goods is prompting companies of all sizes to lay off workers, shut down plants and reduce production of machinery, steel, plastics and other basic components.

The job cuts are coming across industries and borders. Nickent Golf, a golf-club manufacturer in the Los Angeles area, recently cut assembly workers in China and the U.S. to cope with falling demand. In Elbow Lake, Minn., Cosmos Enterprises Inc., which makes metal and plastic parts for manufacturers including car and farm-equipment makers, has cut capacity, and in October it laid off five machinists and one quality inspector. "What is 2009 going to bring? There's a scary thought," says sales manager Kelly Chandler.

The global manufacturing decline could put pressure on governments to pull harder on monetary and fiscal levers. The European Central Bank, in particular, has been criticized for failing to move rapidly enough, despite cutting its key rate by 1.75 percentage points since October, to its current 2.5%. By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve has slashed its lending rate to near 0%. Investors are betting the ECB will lower its rate by another half percentage point to 2% at its next meeting on Jan. 15.

The International Monetary Fund's campaign to get countries to boost government spending by a total of 2% of global gross domestic product -- more than $1 trillion -- could get a lift as well. In the U.S., President-elect Obama has been talking of a stimulus plan of between $675 billion and $775 billion over two years, largely geared to construction spending. China has talked of greatly increasing spending, although some analysts say the numbers Beijing is using are inflated. European nations, more concerned about budget deficits, have been more reluctant to adopt such tactics.