平井俊顕ブログ (ヤフー）

超緊縮のツケはドイツに回ってきている

超緊縮のツケはドイツに回ってきている

ドイツ経済は輸出に大きく依存している。ユーロ圏は超緊縮を押し付けられているため、ドイツから輸入する余裕はない。これはドイツからみると製品の販路が狭まっているということ。中国からの注文も減っている。というような次第で、最近発表された統計では、昨年12月の工業生産は2.9%の落ち込み、輸入は3.9%,輸出は４．３％の落ち込みをみせている。輸出注文は昨年6-7月に比べると年末の2ヶ月では９％落ち込んでいる。
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Austerity is turning Germany into a basket case too
Now industrial production and export orders are declining even in Europe's powerhouse, as the austerity Berlin demands stifles its customers' spending

German steelworkers: the country's industrial production fell by 2.9% in December.

Exports down by 4.3% in December. Industrial production down by 2.9% in the same month. An economy on the skids? It certainly looks that way. Are we talking about Greece? No. Portugal? Think again.
The economy in question here is Germany, which has started to post the sort of data that smacks of a double-dip recession in Europe's biggest economy.
Consider the evidence. Germany is an export-driven economy but its main markets – the rest of the eurozone, the UK, the US, China – have all seen a sharp slowdown in growth in the second half of 2011. During that period, the most significant German export was austerity, which has now come back to haunt Berlin through diminished demand for the industrial goods produced by the Mittelstand. Total export orders were almost 9% lower in the final two months of 2011 from their peak in June-July.
But the domestic economy is also suffering. Imports were down by 3.9% in December, so there is little hope that countries like Greece can export their way out of trouble, even if they accept the terms of their new bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
Germany has already admittted that it is on course to suffer a drop in gross domestic product of around 0.25% in the fourth quarter of 2011, although the figures for industrial output and exports released this week suggest the drop may be bigger than that. Order books are weak, which suggests that the downturn could persist into the first three months of 2012.
All of which illustrates why Angela Merkel is growing increasingly impatient with Athens over the failure to sign off on the new austerity plan. Germany can ill afford an intensification of the Greek crisis, especially if there are ripple effects across the rest of Europe.
Clearly, the lesson that should be learned from Germany's renewed flirtation with recession is that there needs to be a crash rethink of blanket austerity – a strategy that is sucking demand out of the European economy and making it harder to bring down budget deficits.
Germany may, however, decide that the moral of this story is that it is suffering too high a price for keeping the single currency together – and that the stragglers need to be cut loose, perhaps once the French presidential election is over.

「ドイツのヨーロッパではなくヨーロッパのドイツたれ！」は、いまや・・・

"Wo ist Sarkozy?" （Merkel)
"Je ne peut pas voir Merkel. Ou est'elle?"　（Sarkozy)

"Merkel looks down, while the others do not look up."　（Guess who.　Yeah,　Cameron).
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「ドイツのヨーロッパではなくヨーロッパのドイツたれ！」は、いまや

なかなか興味深いコラムである。1953年にトーマス・マンが若者に向けて発した言葉。しかしいまは、「ヨーロッパのドイツではなく、ドイツのヨーロッパ」になってしまっている。コールもシュミットも通貨統合を通じてのヨーロッパの統合を求めていたが、最終的にドイツをこの問題に釘付けにした≪東西ドイツの統合を強く薦めることで）のはミッテランであった。
　いま車は運転をドイツがし、その横にサルコジが乗っている。そして後部座席にユーロ圏のほかのメンバーが乗り、イギリスはもっと後方でじっとしている。ドイツは、ガソリン代、ホテル代もみな自分に払わせようとしていると不満を抱いている。
　キッシンジャーの言葉が興味深い。「ドイツは中途半端な大きさ」だという。ヨーロッパにとっては大きすぎるが、世界にとっては小さすぎる」。なるほどね。
　もう１つ面白い言葉がみられる。いまや「メルコジ」（Merkozy）ではなく、「メルケルジ」（Merkelzy）だと。ナルヘソな。
（注：メルケルの部分が多くなっています。サルコジは「コジ」から「ジ」に減っています。）
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Angela Merkel needs all the help she can get
Few had anticipated the leadership dilemmas of a European Germany in a German Europe
Timothy Garton Ash
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 8 February 2012 19.30 GMT

In 1953 the novelist Thomas Mann appealed to an audience of students in Hamburg to strive for "not a German Europe but a European Germany". This stirring pledge was endlessly repeated at the time of German unification. Today we have a variation that few foresaw: a European Germany in a German Europe.
Angela Merkel's Berlin republic is a European Germany, in the rich, positive sense that the great novelist had come to use the term. It is free, civilised, democratic, law-bound, and socially and environmentally conscious. It's far from perfect, obviously, but as good as any other big country in Europe – and the best Germany we've ever had.
Yet because of the crisis of the eurozone this European Germany finds itself, unwillingly, at the centre of a German Europe. No one can seriously doubt that Germany is calling the shots in the eurozone. The reason we have a fiscal compact treaty agreed by 25 EU member states is that Berlin wanted it. Desperate, impoverished Greeks are being told to "do your homework" by Germans. More extraordinary still, the German chancellor is now telling French voters who to vote for in their own presidential election, through a series of campaign appearances with Nicolas Sarkozy. Everyone says that Europe is being led by "Merkozy", but the reality is more like Merkelzy.
Germany did not seek this leadership position. Rather, this is a perfect illustration of the law of unintended consequences. German leaders, from Helmut Schmidt to Helmut Kohl, had envisaged advancing the European project through a European monetary union, but it was François Mitterrand's France that insisted on pinning Germany down to it, in the context of German unification.
・・・

・今日していること

・今日していること

今日は、おだやかな日和だ。
あのすずめさん夫婦はどうしているのだろう。畑でエサをつついているんだろうな。ホントに小さな小さなすずめさんがけんめいに文句も言わずに生きているのには、「いと、あはれ」とともに感動を覚えた。
　バス停の木にぶら下がっているミノムシさんは元気にしているかな。あとで見に行くことにしよう。

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今朝、メールを開けると、２つの件が目に入ってきた。

（１）ヨーロッパの研究仲間からあるプロジェクトへの参加の打診が届いていた。非常に興味深いテーマ。引き受け（参加し）たい。

（２）『統計』3月号のゲラが届いた。週末に校正をしたい。

・一番気になっているのは、ギリシア問題だ。で、その展開をチェックする。
これらについては、日本語ではまったく情報は得られない。いまのインターネットの時代、自分で向こうからの情報発信を読んだ方が細かく、かつリアルタイムで知ることができる。
　（日本語での情報がなぜ問題かというと、新聞の場合であれば、新聞社が向こうの情報を取捨選択して購読者に読ませる、というかたちになる。しかも、その大半は、向こうの記事の翻訳である。そうでない場合は、専門家の見解だが、これも時間が遅れての発信になる。あるいは特派員の報告ということになるが、散発的であまり当てにはならない。）

・これから『資本主義はいずこへ』（昭和堂）のゲラ校正作業を行いたいと思う。書物の場合、理論的な考察については、半年で考えが変わることはないが、日々生じている経済・社会の変動については、あるところでストップさせるほかない。この書の場合、12月中旬ですべて時を止めている。刊行は4月末か5月上旬になると思われる。その間に世界で生じていることは反映できないのである。反映はこのブログでなされている。
　こうしたことも、ネットの時代に生じてきている現象である。

ギリシア、ベイルアウトの条件を受け入れる −「緊縮を通じての成長」？！

ギリシア、ベイルアウトの条件を受け入れる　−「緊縮を通じての成長」？！

財相は同意書をもってブリュッセルで開催されるユーログループ（ユーロ・メンバー国の財相の集まり）に出席することになっている。
　同意書だが、首相と内閣を支持する3党の指導者との話し合いによるもの。だが、1点完全決着となっていないようなのが、年金カット問題である。
　政府は超緊縮財政を実行に移すことは不可能であろう。15000人のリストラが3月までに実行できるだろうか。できたとしても経済への下方スパイラルを引き起こすばかりで、結局、税収の増大は見込めないだろう。それは最初から分かっていることだ。トロイカはこの政策を「緊縮を通じての成長」と読んでいるが、これは欺瞞的な言葉遊びである。国内経済の有効需要を増大させる方策はすべて放棄されている。

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Greece agrees on bailout terms
Political leaders finally decide on a course that would avert a chaotic default for the debt-choked nation
Helena Smith in Athens
The Guardian, Thursday 9 February 2012

Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos attended a eurogroup meeting with the ‘the agreement in his hands’, officials said.
After three days of high drama, political posturing and brinkmanship, Greece's coalition government reached a tentative agreement on the draconian terms required to unlock €130bn (£109bn) in aid for the crisis-hit country on Wednesday night, although the marathon negotiations were set to continue into the small hours.
One senior aide said that by the time the Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, boarded a plane at 7am to attend Thursday's eurogroup meeting in Brussels, he would have the "finalised text of the agreement in his hands".
In the first concrete sign that Greece's feuding political leaders had decided on a course that would avert a chaotic default for the debt-choked nation, prime minister Lucas Papademos said that consensus had been achieved over all but one of the cost-cutting reforms the EU, European Central Bank and IMF are demanding in return for the rescue programme.
"There has been agreement on all issues except one," Papademos's office said in a statement released after seven hours of talks between the technocrat leader and the three party heads backing his interim administration. The final obstacle to the politicians signing the accord was supplementary pensions, the one area where all three party chiefs were determined to avoid further cuts prior to general elections in the spring.
But with the Greek government resuming negotiations with the country's "troika" of foreign lenders at 1am, officials appeared confident that the sticking point would be resolved by the morning.
"The negotiations have essentially been closed," said a senior official.
The 17-nation eurogroup is expected to discuss and ratify the agreement Venizelos will present to them later in the day, with analysts interpreting it as another positive sign that the bailout deal would finally be sealed. The eurogroup had originally want to seal the deal on Monday but wrangling over the austerity measures meant that the deadline was missed.
Antonis Samaras, the New Democracy party leader, said the negotiations would continue "because at this time of great pain we have to think about pensioners".
The centre-right politician, who had thwarted agreement by persistently raising the issue during the talks, has been a vocal opponent of the "growth through austerity" polices meted out to Greece by the EU and IMF.
Throughout the talks, Papademos, a former vice-president of the ECB, repeatedly interrupted the talks to speak with Jean-Claude Juncker, the eurogroup chairman, and IMF chief Christine Lagarde.
Panic hovered over the talks, widely seen as a last chance for Greece to keep bankruptcy at bay. Athens faces debt repayments amounting to €14.5bn in barely six weeks' time – money it simply does not have. Taking the discussions down to the wire had exasperated European leaders and seen markets gyrate in recent weeks.
The prospect of further austerity has whipped up widespread anger among Greeks with unions vowing a ferocious "and possible uncontrollable" backlash.

ギリシア、トロイカの要求を受け入れる

ギリシア、トロイカの要求を受け入れる

ギリシアはトロイカからの第2次ベイルアウト1300億ユーロの交換条件として突きつけられていた要求を受け入れた。最低賃金の22％切り下げ、それに3月までに15000人の公務員首切り、補充年金の15％カットなど、である。
　これはおそらく何の解決にもならないと思う。EUROSTATの最近の発表だとギリシア国民は現在3人に1人が貧困ライン以下で暮らしている（危機以前は5人に1人であった）。ギリシア政府はこれを実行しなければならない。しかし3月には総選挙が控えている。いまの暫定政府はもたない。3月には巨額の満期償還が待ち構えている。トロイカの超緊縮政策はギリシア経済をさらに落とし込むが、トロイカはそのことに何の関心も同情も示さない。しかし国民はだまっていない。大きな社会的・政治的・経済的混乱は今後一層ひどくなる。
（1300億ユーロは分割で貸し付けられる。3月の支払い額は145億ユーロ。これはどこに行くかというと、関係する債券の保有者のところにわたる。外国の銀行、それに投機目的のヘッジファンドあたりに渡る。ギリシア国民には一銭も渡らない。渡らないどころか、そのために年金カットや首切りを命令されているのである。）

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Greek PM pushes through cuts deal
Lucas Papademos secures agreement on policies including 22% cut in minimum wage and 15,000 public sector redundancies
Helena Smith in Athens
The Guardian, Thursday 9 February 2012

Greek prime minister Lucas Papademos has pushed through an agreement on painful austerity measure.

At almost the twelfth hour Athens has done it again: with all eyes in Europe's major capitals focused on it, the country appeared to pull back from the brink early on Thursday morning and instead choose to adopt furiously unpopular austerity measures in return for the rescue loans that are keeping its economy afloat.
In one set of marathon talks after another, the technocrat prime minister Lucas Papademos managed to rally support for the excruciatingly painful policies that will dominate Greek life for the best part of the next decade.
At times this week it has looked like an impossible task. Papademos, an avuncular academic, is no aficionado of the hurly-burly of Greek politicking. The constant delays and repeated missed deadlines of negotiations that Greece's EU partners had hoped would be wrapped up on Monday, had infuriated him.
The bickering among the party chiefs backing his interim coalition peaked on Wednesday night when a final round of talks – lasting seven hours – were constantly interrupted by the refusal of the leaders to endorse cuts in pensions.
The issue, which remains outstanding, will not be the last.
The 50-page draft agreement outlining the terms on which Greece can expect to receive rescue loans was much harsher than any of the politicians had envisaged.
A cursory read shows that it contains some of the most savage cuts in modern Greek history with the minimum wage being reduced by 22%. From €750 a month it will be brought down to €585 – a drop that in turn has been quick to enrage trade unionists and is bound to elicit widespread, and possibly violent, protests in the weeks and months ahead.
Supplementary pensions were to have been dropped by 15 % – on top of the barrage of tax increases, wage and pension cuts over the past two years. The government has also agreed to lay off 15,000 public sector employees by March.
On Wednesday, the European statistics agency, Eurostat, announced that one in three Greeks live under the poverty line – up from one in five before the crisis.
The squabbling is not going to go away. Tensions between Greece and its foreign lenders are still very raw.
Entering the prime ministerial building ahead of the marathon talks, Georgios Karatzaferis, leader of the small populist Laos party, spoke of an atmosphere of "blackmail" in which politicians had been forced to make decisions under extraordinary pressure.
"Time is [being used] as a blackmailing factor by our creditors," he said, highlighting the mood of mistrust between Greece and foreign lenders. "And that is a problem for me."
Indicative of the mistrust, debt inspectors, who have spent the past three weeks in intense talks with Papademos and the Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos, have insisted on seeing each one of the leaders, separately, following their endorsement of the plan.
A clause specifying their strict adherence to the agreement in the months and years ahead was also inserted into the accord. Insiders said troika representatives would use the meetings to "ram home" the message that it is "agreement, 100% complying with the rules, or default".
"The package was much heavier than any of the leaders thought," said one well-placed official. "I don't think intellectually or psychologically they were prepared for what they have to accept or the sort of austerity that needs to be imposed. They've lived in a fantasy world refusing to believe the figures and thinking fiscal problems could be easily solved."