中国の足跡を辿って。。。 ( アジア情勢 ) - Snail GO!GO! in USA

中国＋ワンのデスティネーションとしてすっかり定着したベトナムのWTO加盟が決まりました。
これで、増々ベトナムに海外からのヒト、モノ、カネが流入して、輸出国として高度成長を遂げていくんでしょうね。

しかし、もちろんそこには支払わなければならない代価もあります。

中国の例を見ても分かるように、FDIや輸出に頼った経済発展は社会の歪みを浮き彫りにし、貧富の差を広げ、社会不安を引き起こしかねません。

そのような問題の山積みにどう対処して行くのか。同じく共産主義の草鞋を履いたベトナム政府の裁量に注目です。

また、ベトナムの台頭は近隣東南アジア諸国にとっても、大きなチャレンジとなります。

追う側はもちろん勢いづいていますが、追われる側は常に危機感を募らせるものです。もはや人件費の安さでは勝負できなくなった今、周辺諸国の今後の発展からも目が離せませんね＾＾

"Vietnam's WTO hopes and dreams," Asian Times, 12 Jan. 2007.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/IA12Ae03.html

HANOI - After nearly 11 years of protracted negotiations and intense horse-trading with the United States, Vietnam on Thursday officially became the 150th member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), opening the way for more foreign trade and investment to speed the communist country's capitalist transformation.

（中略）

Many economic analysts predict that Vietnam's accession to the WTO will facilitate faster foreign-trade and capital flows and push Vietnam's economic growth above that of China this year. Even before WTO accession, Vietnam presented stiff competition for manufacturing-oriented foreign direct investment (FDI) among its more established regional neighbors, including Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Some economic analysts predict the investment-protection guarantees required of WTO members and recent anti-foreign investment signals from Thailand will accelerate FDI flows away from other Southeast Asian countries toward Vietnam. So will Vietnam's comparatively cheap, but industrious, labor. According to a survey last year by the Japan External Trade Organization, Vietnam's minimum monthly wage level was about US$50, significantly lower than India's $74, Indonesia's $90, the Philippines' $135, southern China's $92 and Thailand's $110.

（中略）

The downside risk to Vietnam's ruling Communist Party is that WTO-inspired growth is not equitably distributed across the population and sparks widespread resentment among those displaced by freer trade. Already, economic development in Vietnam is not taking place in a balanced way. By all measures, Vietnam is still a poor country, with per capita GDP at a mere $620 and an economy less than half the size of nearby Thailand's.

Vietnam's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) still find it hard to access capital from the formal financial sector. According to Ministry of Planning and Investment statistics, only about 32.4% of SMEs have qualified for proper bank loans. If Vietnamese-owned businesses are to take advantage of the new access to foreign markets, they will need capital infusions from somewhere. Arriving at a financial mechanism that doesn't contravene WTO rules and regulations will represent a significant, if not daunting, challenge.