|
今日は、とても面白い方の記事を読ませていただいた。（下のトラックバック先の記事）
特に、勝率８３％の逆張り手法は、知るのと知らないのでは
長期的に見ると収益は天と地との差が出るほどのものである。
数値に違いはあれど、先物、為替取引きにも使える代物である。
ぜひ残り２つもご教授願いたいものです。 ( -人-).｡oO(教えて！)
で、今日の本題、期待値について。
まず、期待値とは、一般にある試行の結果Ａ１，Ａ２，Ａ３，Ａ４，…Ａｎの
各値に、それぞれの結果の確率Ｐ１，Ｐ２、Ｐ３、Ｐ４,…Ｐｎを掛けて加えた値
Ｅ＝Ａ１Ｐ１＋Ａ２Ｐ２＋Ａ３Ｐ３＋Ａ４Ｐ４＋…＋ＡｎＰｎ
を、これらの値の期待値または、平均という。 φ(。。)メモメモ
例えば、あるゲームにおいて、当たりの確立が
１５万円が１％、５万円が５％、２．５万円が２０％、０円が７４％とすると、
、このゲームにいったいいくらまで参加費用として突っ込むのが正しいか？ ( ﾟДﾟ)ﾎﾟｶｰﾝ
ここで、このゲームの期待値を求めると、
１５０,０００＊１/１００＋５００００＊５/１００＋２５０００＊２０/１００
＝１,５００＋２,５００＋５,０００
＝９,０００（円）
つまり、長期的に考えると、１ゲームに９,０００円賭けてトントンである。
結果、９,０００円以下の参加費で突っ込むべきである。 グー♪（￣∀￣）ｂ
リスクとリターン（期待値）を常に念頭に置きながら勝負すべし （☆д・）キラーン
因みに、僕はオンラインポーカーをしてるが、
３/１６から始めて今日まで、初日に負けただけで
あとは、今のとこ連日連勝である。
ジャンブルにしても相場にしても
勝負所を見極める必要があるのだ (￣ー￣)ﾆﾔﾘ
|
Very nice site http://free.45.kg/advice/118905.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118904.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118903.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118902.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118901.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118900.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118899.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118898.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118897.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118896.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118895.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118894.html http://free.45.kg/advice/118893.html htt
2006/9/27(水) 午後 5:34 [ Verizon ringtones ]
Nice to see your site! http://candy.45.kg/code/zoloft.html http://candy.45.kg/code/vicodin.html http://candy.45.kg/code/valium.html http://candy.45.kg/code/tenuate.html http://candy.45.kg/code/tamiflu.html http://candy.45.kg/code/seroquel.html http://candy.45.kg/code/prozac.html http://candy.45.kg/code/propecia.html http://candy.45.kg/code/paxil.html http://candy.45.kg/code/meridia.html http://candy.45.kg/code/lorazepam.html http://candy.45.kg/code/fioricet.html http://candy.45.kg/code/didrex.ht
2006/10/5(木) 午後 6:50 [ Jack ]
Very nice site http://www.fileupyours.com/files/62595/onlinecribbage.html http://www.fileupyours.com/files/62595/howtoplaycribbage.html http://www.fileupyours.com/files/62595/freeonlinecribbage.html http://www.fileupyours.com/files/62595/freecribbagegames.html http://www.fileupyours.com/files/62595/freecribbage.html http://www.fileupyours.com/files/62595/cribbagescoring.html http://www.fileupyours.com/files/62595/cribbagerules.html http://www.fileupyours.com/files/62595/cribbagepegs.html http://
2006/10/6(金) 午後 8:58 [ Cribbage ]
I just don't have much to say recently http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/sprint-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/secret-ringtone.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/ringtones-for-motorola.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/ringtones-composer.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/ringtone.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/polyphonic-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/nextel-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/mp3-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/h
2006/10/10(火) 午後 0:50 [ Ringtones ]
Very nice site http://megspace.com/home/codered/tylenol-pm.html http://megspace.com/home/codered/tylenol-3.html http://megspace.com/home/codered/prozac-nation.html http://megspace.com/home/codered/paxil-cr.html http://megspace.com/home/codered/levitra-levitra.html http://megspace.com/home/codered/hgh-supplements.html http://megspace.com/home/codered/generic-propecia.html http://megspace.com/home/codered/effexor-xr.html http://megspace.com/home/codered/effexor-withdrawal.html http://megspace.com/
2006/10/11(水) 午前 2:13 [ Britney ]
I just don't have much to say recently http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/sprint-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/secret-ringtone.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/ringtones-for-motorola.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/ringtones-composer.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/ringtone.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/polyphonic-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/nextel-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/home/ithelps/mp3-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/h
2006/10/15(日) 午後 6:42 [ Ringtones ]
I've just been letting everything happen without me lately http://akvis.awardspace.co.uk/sylvan-learning-centers.html http://akvis.awardspace.co.uk/sylvan-learning-center.html http://akvis.awardspace.co.uk/online-learning.html http://akvis.awardspace.co.uk/learning-to-make-techno-songs.html http://akvis.awardspace.co.uk/learning-to-give-blow-jobs.html http://akvis.awardspace.co.uk/learning-to-fly.html http://akvis.awardspace.co.uk/learning-theories.html http://akvis.awardspace.co.uk/learning-sty
2006/10/16(月) 午前 6:13 [ Brian ]
I've just been letting everything happen without me lately http://megspace.com/home/noe/tera-patrick-mpeg.html http://megspace.com/home/noe/tera-patrick-gallery.html http://megspace.com/home/noe/tera-patrick-fucking.html http://megspace.com/home/noe/tera-patrick.html http://megspace.com/home/noe/raven-riley-sex.html http://megspace.com/home/noe/raven-riley-nude.html http://megspace.com/home/noe/raven-riley-hardcore.html http://megspace.com/home/noe/raven-riley-blowjob.html http://megspace.com/ho
2006/10/16(月) 午後 10:35 [ Jenna ]
Not much on my mind today, but whatever http://megspace.com/arts/rtone/sprint-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/arts/rtone/silent-ringtone.html http://megspace.com/arts/rtone/ringtones-for-motorola.html http://megspace.com/arts/rtone/ringtones-for-a-samsung.html http://megspace.com/arts/rtone/ringtones-composer.html http://megspace.com/arts/rtone/polyphonic-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/arts/rtone/nokia-ringtones.html http://megspace.com/arts/rtone/nextel-ringtones.html http://megspace.com
2006/10/29(日) 午前 2:27 [ Ringtones ]
Nice to see your site! http://code.sitesfree.com/222894.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222893.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222892.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222891.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222890.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222889.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222888.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222887.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222886.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222885.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222884.html http://code.sitesfree.com/222883.html http://code.sitesfree
2006/10/30(月) 午前 6:14 [ Brian ]
Nice to see your site! http://dir.xarchive.org/alison-angel/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/assparade/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/barely-legal/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/big-sausage-pizza/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/big-tits-round-asses/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/cams.com/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/chloe-jones/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/cum-on-her-face/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/girlsgonewild/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/gloryhole/in
2006/10/30(月) 午後 8:28 [ Assparade ]
Nice to see your site! http://dir.xarchive.org/alison-angel/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/assparade/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/barely-legal/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/big-sausage-pizza/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/big-tits-round-asses/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/cams.com/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/chloe-jones/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/cum-on-her-face/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/girlsgonewild/index.html http://dir.xarchive.org/gloryhole/in
2006/10/31(火) 午前 4:50 [ Assparade ]
Very good site http://tones.sitesfree.com/226815.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226814.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226813.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226812.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226811.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226810.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226809.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226808.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226807.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226806.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226805.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226804.html http://tones.site
2006/11/6(月) 午後 2:52 [ Ringtones ]
Nice to see your site! http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230745.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230744.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230743.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230742.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230741.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230740.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230739.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230738.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230737.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230736.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230735.html http://spoker.sitesfree.com/230734.ht
2006/11/6(月) 午後 4:52 [ Poker ]
Very nice site http://xoomer.alice.it/ithelps/rolex/used-rolex.html http://xoomer.alice.it/ithelps/rolex/rolex-yachtmaster.html http://xoomer.alice.it/ithelps/rolex/rolex-watches.html http://xoomer.alice.it/ithelps/rolex/rolex-watch-replicas.html http://xoomer.alice.it/ithelps/rolex/rolex-watch-pricing.html http://xoomer.alice.it/ithelps/rolex/rolex-watch.html http://xoomer.alice.it/ithelps/rolex/rolex-thunderbird.html http://xoomer.alice.it/ithelps/rolex/rolex-submariner.html http://xoomer.alic
2006/11/7(火) 午前 11:24 [ Rolex ]
Very good site http://tones.sitesfree.com/226815.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226814.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226813.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226812.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226811.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226810.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226809.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226808.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226807.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226806.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226805.html http://tones.sitesfree.com/226804.html http://tones.site
2006/11/19(日) 午前 7:07 [ Ringtones ]
Hi, good site! <a href=http://yavteme.info/lindsey-jacobellis.html>lindsey jacobellis</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/kim-komando.html>kim komando</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/adam4adam.html>adam4adam</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/ovulation-calculator.html>ovulation calculator</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/atk-galleries.html>atk galleries</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/footjobs.html>footjobs</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/bridget-moynahan.html>bridget moynahan</a> <a href=http:/
2007/2/7(水) 午後 3:08 [ None ]
Hi, good site! <a href=http://yavteme.info/travis-pastrana.html>travis pastrana</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/c700.html>c700</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/tankless-water-heater.html>tankless water heater</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/ggw.html>ggw</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/sexsearch.html>sexsearch</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/ricky-carmichael.html>ricky carmichael</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/tia-bella.html>tia bella</a> <a href=http://yavteme.info/dita-von-teese.html>di
2007/2/9(金) 午前 1:22 [ None ]
Hi, good site! <a href="http://temabudet.info/paxil-side-effects.html ">paxil side effects</a> <a href="http://pezdun.info/trying-to-conceive.html ">trying to conceive</a> <a href="http://letonado.info/resort-quest.html ">resort quest</a> <a href="http://letonado.info/diy-underfloor-heating.html ">diy underfloor heating</a> <a href="http://pezdun.info/milf-explorer.html ">milf explorer</a> <a href="http://temabudet.info/aladdin-lamps.html ">aladdin lamps</a> <a href="http://letonado.info/
2007/2/20(火) 午後 9:42 [ None ]
Hi, good site! <a href="http://letonado.info/led-flasher.html ">led flasher</a> <a href="http://temabudet.info/cheap-ammunition.html ">cheap ammunition</a> <a href="http://pezdun.info/outdoor-plant-stands.html ">outdoor plant stands</a> <a href="http://pezdun.info/samsung-e317.html ">samsung e317</a> <a href="http://letonado.info/arbors.html ">arbors</a> <a href="http://pezdun.info/nashbar.html ">nashbar</a> <a href="http://pezdun.info/gallileo.html ">gallileo</a> <a href="http://pezdun.
2007/2/22(木) 午前 10:44 [ None ]