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Arrival on the West Coast
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¡¡The most recently reported measurements of radioactive cesium in North Pacific seawater indicate that the Fukushima plume is beginning its arrival off the west coast of North America.
¡¡Measurements by the Canadian Ocean Monitoring Program first detected very low
concentrations (<0.0005 Bq/L) of Fukushima-derived 134Cs at a station in the Gulf of Alaska
(~145º W) in June of 2012, and off of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, in June 2013 (41). ¡¡¡¡¤Ä¤¤ºÇ¶áÊ󤸤é¤ì¤¿ËÌÂÀÊ¿ÍΤγ¤¿åÃæ¤ÎÊü¼ÍÀ޾޼޳ŽÑ¤Î¬Äê¤Ï¡¢¥Õ¥¯¥·¥Þ¤ÎŽÌŽßŽÙްŽÑ
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¡¡This early arrival, scarcely three years after the accident, matches well with the predictions
of one ocean circulation model (52), but the low concentrations detected are more in line with
another simulation that predicted a slower transit of the North Pacific (46).
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Further to the south, along a transect approximating 30º N latitude, shipboard sampling found
that in late 2013 the leading edge of the cesium plume was north of Hawai¡Çi, between 160 –
150 ºW, but that concentrations were relatively low (≤ 0.008 Bq/L), well below those predicted
for this area (>0.05 Bq/L) by the more spatially-accurate model (50, 52).
¡¡The lower-than-expected concentrations observed in situ may reflect the fact that a large
fraction of the radioactive plume that occupied the central North Pacific in 2012 was mixed into
the deep ocean and effectively removed from the eastward-trending surface plume (48). ¡¡¡¡¤µ¤é¤ËÆî¤Ë Ḛ̈Þ30Åٶ᤯¤ò²£Àڤäơ¢Á¥¤Ë¤è¤ë¥µ¥ó¥×¥ê¥ó¥°¤Ï 2013ǯÊë¤ì¡¡Ž¾Ž¼Ž³ŽÑ
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¡¡¤·¤«¤·¡¢Ç»ÅÙ¤Ï Èæ³ÓŪÄ㤯 (≤ 0¡¥008 Bq/L)¡¢¤è¤ê¶õ´ÖŪ¤ËÀµ³Î¤Ê¥â¥Ç¥ë¤Ç ¤³¤ÎÃϰè¤Ç
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¡¡To date, no Fukushima-derived cesium has been detected in seawater along the coast of
California, Oregon or Washington (24, 37, 50).11
It remains uncertain exactly when, and at what concentration, the radioactive plume will reach
the California coast, though the recent detection of cesium off of British Columbia provides
some indication that this could occur within the next year.
However, the model simulation of Rossi et al. (2013) (52), which came the closest to correctly
predicting the timing of the plume arrival in the Pacific Northwest, also predicts that offshore
currents associated with coastal upwelling in the California Current system could delay the
arrival of the plume on the California shoreline for several years.
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¡¡¤·¤«¤·¤Ê¤¬¤é¡¢ÂÀÊ¿ÍÎËÌÀ¾Éô¤Ë¡¡ŽÌŽßŽÙްŽÑ¤¬Åþ㤹¤ë¥¿¥¤¥ß¥ó¥°¤ÎÀµ³Î¤Êͽ¬¤Ë¡¡ºÇ¤â
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¡¡Under this scenario, the radioactive plume would be ¡Èheld at bay¡É by the net offshore transport
of surface water, only reaching the coastline proper once the cesium has penetrated to the
depths of the waters that are upwelled along the coast.
Once the radioactive plume does reach California, concentrations of radiocesium are predicted
to increase to peak values between 2016 and 2019, declining gradually thereafter over the next
several decades (46, 52).
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¡¡The actual concentrations remain unknown but, based on recent measurements elsewhere
in the North Pacific, are likely to be on the lower end of the 0.003 – 0.02 Bq/L range bracketed
by the predictions of Behrens et al. 2012 (46) and Rossi et al. 2013 (52), respectively (41, 50).
¡¡It is important to note that even the higher estimated levels of radioactivity are dwarfed by
naturally-occurring radioactivity (>400 times greater) and the 137Cs ¡Èlegacy¡É of atmospheric
nuclear weapons testing (>30 times greater), and represent only a tiny increase in total
radioactivity above the pre-accident background.
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¡¡Ž¾Ž¼Ž³ŽÑ137¤Î»Äα¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤Æ ¾®¤µ¤¯¸«¤¨¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¡¢¤½¤·¤Æ »ö¸Î°ÊÁ°¤ÎŽÊŽÞޝޏޏŽÞŽ×޳ŽÝŽÄŽÞ
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Fukushima Radioactivity in Seafood & the Marine Ecosystem
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¡¡Generally speaking, levels of radioactivity in marine organisms will be proportional to the radioactivity of the water in which they live, with higher levels expected in organisms dwelling
closer to the source of contamination.
However, certain radionuclides which are chemically similar to nutrient elements can be
preferentially absorbed by marine organisms and become concentrated in the marine food web. ¡¡¡¡°ìÈÌŪ¤Ë¸À¤¦¤È¡¢³¤ÍÎÀ¸Êª¤Ë¤ª¤±¤ëÊü¼Íǽ¥ì¥Ù¥ë¤Ï¡¡¤½¤ÎÀ³¤ó¤Ç¤¤¤ë¿å¤ÎÊü¼Íǽ
¡¡¤ËÈæÎ㤷¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£¤è¤ê¹â¤¤¥ì¥Ù¥ë¤¬±øÀ÷¸»¤Ë¤è¤ê¶á¤¯À³¤àÀ¸Êª¤Ë´üÂÔ¤µ¤ì¤ë¡£
¡¡¡¡¤·¤«¤·¡¢±ÉÍÜÁǤ˲½³ØÅª¤ËÎà»÷¤¹¤ëÊü¼ÍÀ³Ë¼ï¤Î¤¢¤ë¤â¤Î¤Ï¡¢³¤ÍÎÀ¸Êª¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤Æ
¡¡ÁªÂòŪ¤ËµÛ¼ý¤µ¤ì¡¢³¤ÍΤÎfood web¡Ê¿©ÊªÏ¢º¿Ì֡ˤÇÇ»½Ì¤µ¤ì¤ë¤è¤¦¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¡£
Strontium-90 (90Sr), for example, mimics thechemical behavior of calcium, and if taken-up by
organisms is concentrated in calcium-rich structures such as shell and bone, where it delivers
a sustained dose of radiation over time.
Cesium is also highly bioavailable, but is distributed more evenly throughout the body and is
removed more quickly (¡Èbiological half-life¡É of ~ 70 days in humans) (53).
¡¡¡¡Î㤨¤Ð¡¢¥¹¥È¥í¥ó¥Á¥¦¥à90¤Ï¡¢¥«¥ë¥·¥¦¥à¤Î²½³ØÅªµóư¤Ë»÷¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¤â¤·¡¢À¸ÂΤË
¡¡¼è¤ê¹þ¤Þ¤ì¤¿¤é¡¢³³Ì¤ä¹ü¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ê¡¡¥«¥ë¥·¥¦¥à¤¬ËÉ٤ʹ½Â¤ÂΤËÇ»½Ì¤·¡¢¤½¤³¤Ç
¡¡Ä¹¤¤´Ö¡¡¤º¤Ã¤ÈÊü¼ÍÀþ¤ò½Ð¤·Â³¤±¤ë¡£
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¡¡Impacts to marine life from the Fukushima disaster are most evident in the coastal ocean
nearby the nuclear power plant.
Fish caught in the Fukushima area, in particular bottom-dwellers which may be exposed to high
radionuclide concentrations in seafloor sediment, have had levels of radioactivity well above the
Japanese regulatory limit of 100 Bq/kg (in an extreme case, >100,000 Bq/kg) (54, 55, 56).
In 2011 alone, the closure of local fisheries is estimated to have resulted in $1 – 2 billion in
economic losses (54).
Other species, with different life histories and occupying different ecological niches, were less
consistently contaminated (or at lower levels), and a few appear to have escaped contamination
entirely (e.g., squid, octopus) (54, 56).
Sampling in June 2011 at locations 30-600 km offshore of Fukushima prefecture found total
radioactive cesium (134+137Cs) levels of 0.3 – 102 Bq/kg in zooplankton and fish (below the
100 Bq/kg limit in all but one case) (10).
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¡¡¤Ç¤¢¤í¤¦Äìµû¤Ï¡¢ÆüËܤε¬À©´ð½à100㏃/kg¤ò ¤Ï¤ë¤«¤Ëͤ¨¤¿Êü¼Íǽ¥ì¥Ù¥ë¤À¤Ã¤¿
¡¡¡ÊÀ¨¤¤¾ì¹ç¤Ë¤Ï¡¡10Ëü㏃/kg¤òͤ¨¤¿¡Ë¡£
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¡¡¡¡°ã¤Ã¤¿À®°éÎò ¤ä °ã¤Ã¤¿À¸Êª³ØÅªÃϰ̤ò¤â¤Ä ¾¤Î¼ïÎà¤Î¤â¤Î¤Ï¡¢»Ï½ª°ì´Ó¤·¤Æ
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¡¡¸«¤é¤ì¤¿¡ÊÎ㤨¤Ð¡¢¥¤¥«¤ä¥¿¥³¡Ë¡£
¡¡¡¡2011ǯ6·î¤ÎÊ¡Å縩²¡¡30¡Á600£ë£í¤Ç¤Î¥µ¥ó¥×¥ê¥ó¥°¤Ç¤Ï¡¢Zooplankton¡ÊŽÌŽßŽ×ŽÝޏŽÄŽÝ¡Ë
¡¡¤äµû¤Ï¡¡Êü¼ÍÀ޾޼޳ŽÑ¤Î¹ç·×¤Ç 0¡¥3¡Á102㏃/£ë£ç¤Ç¤¢¤Ã¤¿¡Ê¡¡1·ï¤ò½ü¤¡¡¤¹¤Ù¤Æ¤Ç
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¡¡Along the West Coast, Fukushima-derived radionuclides were fleetingly detected in giant kelp
off of California (131I) (57) and in Alaskan salmon (trace amounts of 134Cs and 137Cs) (58),
reflecting the ¡Èpulse¡É of atmospheric fallout immediately after the accident.
Subsequent sampling of kelp and fish local to the eastern North Pacific has not detected further
contamination (37, 58, 59).
However, a study by Madigan et al. (2012) demonstrated the potential for highly-migratory
species, in this case Pacific Bluefin tuna, a species that spawns and rears in the western Pacific,
to transport radionuclides over long distances.
¡¡¡¡À¾³¤´ß¤Ë±è¤Ã¤Æ¡¡¥Õ¥¯¥·¥ÞͳÍè¤ÎÊü¼ÍÀ³Ë¼ï¤¬¡¡¥«¥ê¥Õ¥©¥ë¥Ë¥¢²¤Î ޼ŽÞެ޲ޱŽÝŽÄ޹ŽÙŽÌŽß
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¡¡¤³¤ì¤Ï¡¡»ö¸Îľ¸å Â絤¤«¤é¤Î¹ß²¼Êª¤Î±Æ¶Á¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£
¡¡ÅìÉôËÌÂÀÊ¿ÍΤΰìÉô¤Ç°ú¤Â³¤¤¤Æ¹Ô¤ï¤ì¤¿¡¡Ž¹ŽÙŽÌŽß¤Èµû¤Î¥µ¥ó¥×¥ê¥ó¥°¤Ç¤Ï¡¢¤â¤Ï¤ä
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¡¡¤ÇÍñ¤ò»º¤ß°é¤Æ¤ë¼ï¤Ç¤¢¤ëÂÀÊ¿ÍÎ¥¯¥í¥Þ¥°¥í¡¢¥Ä¥Ê ¡Á ¤¬¡¡Ä¹¤¤µ÷Î¥¤ò±Û¤¨¤Æ
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Pacific Bluefin tuna caught off of California in August 2011 contained an average of 10 Bq/kg
of radioactive cesium (134+137Cs) from Fukushima, which the fish accumulated in contaminated
western Pacific waters prior to migration (59).12
¡¡A 2012 follow-up study found that radiocesium levels in Pacific Bluefin had decreased by more
than 50¡ó (60).
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¡¡À¾ÂÀÊ¿ÍΤγ¤¿å¤Ç¡¡¤¿¤á¹þ¤ó¤À¤â¤Î¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£
¡¡2012ǯ¤Î·Ñ³Ū¸¦µæ¤Ç¤Ï¡¢ÂÀÊ¿ÍÎŽ¸ŽÛŽÏޏŽÞŽÛ¤ÎÊü¼ÍÀ޾޼޳ŽÑ¤Ï¡¡50¡ó°Ê¾å¸º¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¡£
¡¡When the plume of radioactivity currently spreading across the North Pacific reaches the California coast, local marine life will accumulate Fukushima-derived radioactive cesium (and
other radionuclides present at much lower levels, such as 90Sr).
The low radiocesium concentrations currently observed in seawater off of British Columbia (41)
and in the central Pacific north of Hawaii (50) suggest that the level of exposure will be quite low,
and that marine organisms are unlikely to accumulate dangerous quantities of radioactivity.
However, on-going monitoring of the situation is clearly warranted.
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¡¡¡¡¸½ºß¤Î½ê¡¢ŽÌŽÞŽØŽÃŽ¨Ž¯Ž¼ŽŽºŽÛŽÝŽËŽÞޱ²¤Î³¤¿å¤Ç¡¢Ãæ±ûÂÀÊ¿ÍΤΥϥ磻¤ÎË̤Ǵѻ¡¤µ¤ì¤¿
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Risks & Health Implications of Fukushima Radiation
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It is clear from the available data that people living on the West Coast were exposed to Fukushima-derived radiation in the days and weeks following the disaster, with lower levels of
exposure (from radioactive cesium) continuing to the present.
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¡¡Environmental and public health agencies at the state and federal levels have issued repeated
assurances that the levels of exposure are ¡Èsafe¡É, ¡Ènot harmful¡É or present ¡Èno risk¡É to the
public (e.g., EPA RadNet, Oregon Health Authority, etc.), often citing regulatory standards or
exposure limits that are higher than¡¡the measured levels of Fukushima-derived radiation.
¡¡Though the basic message is likely to be accurate, such assertions are probably best read as
¡Èshorthand¡É for a more nuanced reality:
¡¡The levels of Fukushima-derived radiation detected in North America are unlikely to cause
significant harm to the public at large, and the risks posed by Fukushima radiation are small in
comparison to other things that threaten public health (e.g., air pollution, smoking, obesity, etc.)
(53).
¡¡¡¡´Ä¶¤È¸ø½°±ÒÀ¸¤Î½£¤ÈϢˮ¤Îµ¡´Ø¤Ï¡¢Ë½Ïª¤Î¥ì¥Ù¥ë¤Ï¡¡ ¸ø½°¤Ë¤Ï ¡È°ÂÁ´¡É¡È̵³²¡É
¡¡°¿¤Ï ¸½ºß ¡É¥ê¥¹¥¯¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¡É ¤È ·«¤êÊÖ¤·Êݾڤ·¤Æ¤¤¿¡ÊÎ㤨¤Ð¡¢EPA RadNet¡¢¥ª¥ì¥´¥ó
¡¡ÊÝ·ò¶É¡Ë¡£¡¡¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢¤·¤Ð¤·¤Ð¡¡¥Õ¥¯¥·¥ÞͳÍè¤ÎÊü¼Íǽ¤Î¬Äê¥ì¥Ù¥ë¤è¤ê¹â¤¤µ¬À©´ð½à
¡¡¤Ë¸ÀµÚ¤·¤Ê¤¬¤é¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£
¡¡¡¡´ðËÜŪ¤Ê¥á¥Ã¥»¡¼¥¸¤Ï¡¡Àµ¤·¤¤¤è¤¦¤Ë»×¤ï¤ì¤ë¤±¤ì¤É¤â¡¢¤½¤¦¤¤¤¦ÃǸÀ¤Ï¡¡¤¿¤Ö¤ó
¡¡¤â¤Ã¤ÈÈù̯¤Ê»ö¼Â¤ËÂФ¹¤ë¡¡Â®µ¤Î¤è¤¦¤ËÆÉ¤ß¼è¤é¤ì¤ë¤À¤í¤¦¡£
¡¡¡¡ËÌ¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Ç¸¡½Ð¤µ¤ì¤¿¥Õ¥¯¥·¥ÞͳÍè¤ÎÊü¼Íǽ¤Î¥ì¥Ù¥ë¤Ï¡¢¡¡°ìÈ̸ø½°¤ËÂФ·¤Æ
¡¡¿¼¹ï¤Ê³²¤ò°ú¤µ¯¤³¤¹¤³¤È¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¤À¤í¤¦¤·¡¢¥Õ¥¯¥·¥Þ¤ÎÊü¼Íǽ¤¬Í¿¤¨¤ë¥ê¥¹¥¯¤Ï¡¢
¡¡¸ø½°±ÒÀ¸¤ò¶¼¤«¤¹ ¾¤Î»öÊÁ¤ÈÈæ³Ó¤·¤Æ ¾®¤µ¤¤¡ÊÎ㤨¤Ð¡¢Â絤±øÀ÷¡¢µÊ±ì¡¢ÈîËþ¤Ê¤É¡Ë¡£
¡¡This more circumspect assertion of safety does not rule out adverse impacts to individuals,
and more accurately reflects the current level of scientific uncertainty about the health risks
of low levels of radiation.
¡¡Individual risk is influenced by multiple factors, including the strength and length of exposure,
the particular radionuclides involved, and the age, health and susceptibility of the individual, to
name a few.
¡¡Moreover, the health effects of long-term exposure to low-level radiation are a matter of
on-going scientific debate. ¡¡¡¡¤³¤Î ¤è¤ê¿µ½Å¤Ê°ÂÁ´À¤ÎɽÌÀ¤Ï¡¢¸Ä¿Í¤Ø¤Îͳ²¤Ê±Æ¶Á¤ò̵»ë¤·¤Æ¤Ï¤¤¤Ê¤¤¡£
¡¡¤½¤·¤Æ¡¢ÄãÀþÎ̤ηò¹¯¥ê¥¹¥¯¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Î ²Ê³ØÅª¤ÊÉԳΤ«¤µ¤Î¸½ºß¤Î¥ì¥Ù¥ë¤ò
¡¡Àµ³Î¤ËÈ¿±Ç¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡£¡¡
¡¡¡¡¸Ä¿Í¤Î¥ê¥¹¥¯¤Ï¡¢Â¿¤¯¤ÎÍ×°ø¡Á¡¡ÈïÇø¤Î¶¯¤µ¤ÈŤµ¡¢´Ø¤ï¤Ã¤¿ÆÃ¼ì¤ÊÊü¼ÍÀ³Ë¼ï¡¢
¡¡¸Ä¿Í¤ÎǯÎð¤ä·ò¹¯ ¤½¤·¤Æ´¶¼õÀ¤Ê¤É¤ò´Þ¤à¡¡¡Á¤Ë±Æ¶Á¤µ¤ì¤ë¡£
¡¡¡¡¤½¤Î¾å¤Ë¡¢Ä¹´üÄãÀþÎÌÈïÇø¤Î·ò¹¯±Æ¶Á¤Ï¡¢º£¡¡²Ê³ØÅªµÄÏÀ¤¬·ÑÂ³Ãæ¤Î»öÊÁ
¡¡¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£
¡¡The canonical, precautionary view, which extrapolates from studies of the health impacts of
high doses of radiation, is that any increment of increased radiation exposure, no matter how
small, increases an individual¡Çs chance of developing cancer or other health problems, and that
even unavoidable natural background radiation can contribute to health problems (53).
¡¡However, the relationship between radiation dose and health consequences has not been
established for doses below 100 mSv, and studies on animals indicate that much of the DNA
damage done by low-level radiation can be undone by natural DNA-repair mechanisms in the body
(61).
¡¡¡¡É¸½àŪ¤ÊͽËÉŪ¸«ÃÏ¡Á ¤³¤ì¤Ï ¹âÀþÎ̤ηò¹¯±Æ¶Á¤Î¸¦µæ¤«¤é³°ÁÞ¤·¤¿¤â¤Î¤À¤¬
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¡¡¤Ë´óÍ¿¤¹¤ë²ÄǽÀ¤¬¤¢¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¤â¤Î¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡£
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