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Bill Gates: More Profit Than Prophet

It's been 15 years since Bill Gates published The Road Ahead, a book packed with the Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT - News) founder's predictions about the future. How do Gates's prophecies hold up now that the road ahead has arrived? Let's take a look at Bill's hits and misses:

E-Mail

Prediction: Gates wrote, "Electronic mail and shared screens will eliminate the need for many meetings. ... when face-to-face meetings do take place, they will be more efficient because participants will have already exchanged background information by e-mail. ... information overload is not unique to the (information) highway, and it needn't be a problem."

Verdict: Miss. Gates's view of e-mail now seems naively Utopian, failing to account for unintended consequences. If anything, e-mail has made workplace meetings more frequent and less efficient. "Didn't you get that e-mail?" is probably the single most common question posed at meetings, a query that often leads to ... another meeting. By some estimates, nearly 40 percent of workers spend at least two hours of the work day sifting through e-mail, leading some companies to adopt policies aimed at reducing e-mail glut. One frequent solution: more face-to-face meetings.


The Wallet PC

Prediction: "You'll be able to carry the wallet PC in your pocket or purse. It will display messages and schedules and also let you read or send electronic mail and faxes, monitor weather and stock reports, play both simple and sophisticated games, browse information if you're bored, or choose from among thousands of easy-to-call up photos of your kids."

Verdict: Hit. Gates's wallet PC is more or less today's mobile smartphone with voice capability added.

Wireless Networks

Prediction: "The wireless networks of the future will be faster, but unless there is a major breakthrough, wired networks will have a far greater bandwidth. Mobile devices will be able to send and receive messages, but it will be expensive and unusual to use them to receive an individual video stream."

Verdict: Miss. Today, receiving a wireless video stream is neither expensive nor unusual; in fact, it's so commonplace that most people don't give it a second thought. Gates failed to anticipate that wireless would become cheaper and faster, but his chief mistake was a common but flawed assumption among techno-futurists: that new technology is adopted chiefly on the basis of technological superiority rather than social factors. Even though most wired networks still have greater bandwidth than wireless nets, that's trumped by the tremendous social utility of wireless, allowing information to be accessed anytime, anyplace.

Social Networking

Prediction: "The (information) highway will not only make it easier to keep up with distant friends, it will also enable us to find new companions. Friendships formed across the network will lead naturally to getting together in person."

Verdict: Hit and Miss. One of the killer apps of the information highway has turned out to be social networking. Facebook has more than 400 million registered users worldwide and countless other social networks are creating new connections among people. But friendships formed online don't regularly lead to face-to-face meetings. Far more common is the user with 250 Facebook friends, most of whom he rarely, if ever, sees in person.

Online Shopping

Prediction: "Because the information highway will carry video, you'll often be able to see exactly what you've ordered. ... you won't have to wonder whether the flowers you ordered for your mother by telephone were really as stunning as you'd hoped. You'll be able to watch the florist arrange the bouquet, change your mind if you want, and replace wilting roses with fresh anemones."

Verdict: Miss. Gates was right that the information highway would carry video, but he completely misread the social and economic factors that would shape its use in online commerce. How on earth would a harried florist find the time to hold a videoconference with every customer who orders flowers for Mother's Day? What company would absorb the colossal expense of having orders changed at the last second according to customers' shifting whims? Gates's vision of online shopping has turned out to be a lot like past predictions about personal jet packs and moving sidewalks: a future that's technologically possible but socially and economically impractical.

Raid spotlights Colombia, Venezuela's different military philosophies

WASHINGTON — Colombia's military recently had one of its finest moments: the killing of a senior leader of FARC, a resilient guerrilla group that had never lost a member of its top leadership in combat.

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At the same time, U.S. officials and military analysts say, Venezuela fumbled an effort to rush troops and tanks to the border with Colombia in response to the deadly March 1 attack, on a FARC camp in Ecuador .

The Colombian raid triggered a short-lived crisis. But military experts say it also showed the contrasting security philosophies of Venezuela's socialist President Hugo Chavez and Colombia's conservative President Alvaro Uribe .

Colombia , with U.S. help, has assembled a nimble infantry-based and intelligence-reliant counterinsurgency force capable of striking at guerrilla units and leaders deep in the jungle.

The Venezuelans have done just the opposite: They've spurned all contacts with the U.S. military and instead opted mostly for big-ticket purchases of Russian fighters, attack helicopters and submarines while forming, training and arming reserve and militia units loyal to Chavez.

The result is that Venezuela's military is impressive on paper but also in many ways a paper tiger, according to defense experts, shaped more to preserve Chavez's grip on power than to fight an effective war.

Colombia , said John Cope , with the Institute for National Strategic Studies of the National Defense University , has become "an extremely good professional force," while the Venezuelan army is "trying to figure out the ins and outs of an approach to a military organization that puts a high emphasis on civic action and humanitarian issues— which means they're probably not spending an awful lot of time training."

The contrast of the two militaries is more than an academic exercise. Few analysts believe that Chavez, a fiery critic of U.S. policies, will provoke a war against Uribe, a stalwart Washington ally.

Rather, the concern is that someone could light a match in the still-combustible environment.

"I think the real concern is not that Chavez intends to provoke a war, although that can't be ruled out, but that there's more of a possibility that, with all the rhetoric he's using, that some bright young lieutenant colonel will decide to take action on his own and cause a skirmish that could escalate," said a senior U.S. intelligence official, who agreed to be interviewed on condition of anonymity.

Observers on both sides of the border are busy updating the facts and figures on the two forces.

In sheer manpower, Colombia has an edge. Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment places the Colombian armed forces, not including Colombia's sizable police force, at 263,000, more than double Venezuela's 115,000.

Colombia's forces are modeled on the U.S. military, with seven army divisions, three naval units and eight air commands being coordinated by five geographically based U.S.-style joint commands. According to Jane's, the idea is to ensure closer cooperation between the different branches of the military.

In a process that began before Uribe took office in 2002, the Colombian military has shifted its focus on counterinsurgency and counter-drug-trafficking, putting together helicopter-based and other highly mobile battalions and special-forces units.

Many of the units have been trained by the 500 or so U.S. advisers in the country with part of the estimated $600 million in military aid that Washington provides annually to Colombia .

Colombian and U.S. officers also maintain a Joint Intelligence Center in the southern base of Tres Esquina , which gathers information from communications intercepts and images from U.S. spy planes, listening stations and satellites, according to Jane's.

True to its counterinsurgency strategy and its partly mountainous, partly jungle terrain, Colombia has no combat tanks.

In contrast, Chavez has severed all military ties with the United States , which in turn has stopped selling him weapons and replacement parts.

Chavez has promoted the concept of asymmetric warfare, essentially preparing reserves and militias for a guerrilla war against an invader, presumably U.S. troops. Observers say he could end up creating a militia force of some 300,000.

But his regular armed forces are regarded as logistically challenged, and U.S. officials believe the army struggled to move its tank units toward the Colombian border after Chavez gave the order on March 2 . Venezuela has nearly 200 French AMX-30, AMX-13 and British Scorpion 90 tanks.

Ga. storms kill 2 after Atlanta twister

ATLANTA - Tens of thousands of basketball fans at two arenas were perfectly safe, officials insisted Saturday, even though the crowds apparently weren't warned about an approaching tornado — one that would ravage skyscrapers and injure dozens.

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About 18,000 people were watching the Southeastern Conference men's tournament Friday night at the Georgia Dome when its fabric roof began rippling, the catwalks above the court started swaying and chunks of insulation rained onto the players.

The National Weather Service issued a tornado warning about eight minutes before the twister hit, but it wasn't clear when or if that alert was passed on to fans, said Katy Pando, a dome spokeswoman. Fans claimed they never heard or saw one.

Another 16,000 fans watching an NBA game at Philips Arena, in the same complex as the dome, weren't told of the weather, either. The arena apparently sustained little damage, Atlanta Hawks spokesman Arthur Triche said.

The tornado, with wind up to 130 mph, cut a 6-mile path through downtown Atlanta, smashing hundreds of windows in and around the CNN Center, blowing furniture and luggage out of hotel rooms and crumbling part of an apartment building. At least 27 people were hurt, though no injuries was believed to be life-threatening, and no injuries were reported at the arenas.

"I thought it was a tornado or a terrorist attack," said Mississippi State guard Ben Hansbrough, whose team beat Alabama 69-67 after an hourlong delay under a roof with at least two visible tears.

"Ironically, the guy behind me got a phone call saying there was a tornado warning," fan Lisa Lynn said. "And in two seconds, we heard the noise and things started to shake. It was creepy."

Elsewhere in Georgia on Saturday, storms killed one person in Polk County and another in Floyd County, both near the Alabama line, emergency management officials said. Storms in South Carolina and Alabama left thousands without electricity.

Crews hauled broken glass and furniture out of streets in downtown Atlanta, where all events scheduled for Saturday were canceled, including the St. Patrick's Day parade.

Local and state officials were reluctant to weigh in on whether public venues and businesses are responsible for alerting patrons of imminent weather danger. Georgia Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner John Oxendine said his office would look into whether people at the Georgia Dome got a timely tornado warning, though he considered the question premature.

Several calls to Philips Arena on Saturday were not immediately returned.

"There wasn't much time to tell anybody anything" before the storm hit, said Catherine Woodling, a spokeswoman for Mayor Shirley Franklin.

A warning from the weather service gave residents in nearby neighborhoods about eight minutes to seek cover. Guests at the Omni Hotel were quickly ushered into hallways, away from glass and flying furniture, and the only injuries were "some cuts and scrapes and no major issues as far as we know," hotel spokesman Mike Sullivan said.

"It was crazy. There was a lot of windows breaking and stuff falling," said Terrence Evans, a valet who was about to park a car at the hotel when the twister hit.

The 1,000-room hotel was fully booked, though many guests were out at the arenas when the storm hit.

More thunderstorms passed through the Atlanta area Saturday, but the city's downtown appeared to have been spared any more substantial damage.

Oxendine estimated damage from Friday night's storm at $150 million to $200 million, most of it at the Georgia World Congress Center, a state convention facility near the CNN Center and the Georgia Dome.

CNN said its headquarters building suffered ceiling damage that allowed water to pour into the atrium, and windows were shattered in the CNN.com newsroom and the company's library.

A loft apartment building had severe damage to one corner and appeared to have major roof damage. Property manager Darlys Walker said there was one minor injury. A vacant building also collapsed, with no apparent injuries, Fire Capt. Bill May said.

Grady Memorial Hospital, the city's large public hospital where many of the injured were taken, had broken windows but was operating as usual.

Melody and Brad Sorrells were home in their living room with their two children when the storm hit, and the huge pine in their front yard crash into their east Atlanta house.

"I saw it falling and we ran into the back bedrooms in the closet," Melody Sorrels said. "I feel sick."

The tornado was the first on record in downtown Atlanta, said Vaughn Smith, another weather service meteorologist. The last tornado to strike inside the city was in 1975, and it hit the governor's mansion north of downtown, he said.

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Countrywide Home Loan Delinquencies Rise

Countrywide's Home Loan Delinquencies Surge, Stock Drops


LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Countrywide Financial Corp.'s shares tumbled for the second day Wednesday after the nation's largest mortgage lender said the delinquency and foreclosure rate of home loans in its portfolio surged in December.
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The news drove shares down more than 15 percent in early afternoon trading.

The company said some 6.96 percent of the loans in its servicing portfolio were delinquent last month, up from 5.02 percent in December 2006.

About 1.04 percent of the mortgage loans were pending foreclosure, up from 0.65 percent.

Meanwhile, loan fundings during December rose 1 percent from the previous month, ahead of internal forecasts.

The company said it funded $24 billion in loans during the month, giving it a total of $69 billion for the fourth quarter.

Countrywide also reported that its banking operations had assets of $113 billion at the end of December, up from $83 billion at the end of November.

Management pointed to the slight increase in loan fundings and rising bank deposits as evidence the company was heading in the right direction.

"Our fourth quarter ended with a number of positive operational trends," Countrywide's president and chief operating officer David Sambol said in a statement. "Management is pleased with the progress we have made in positioning the company to navigate the current challenging environment."

But its shares fell 83 cents, or 15.2 percent, to $4.64 on afternoon trading Wednesday after sinking as low as $4.43 earlier in the session. The drop followed a loss of $2.17, or 28.4 percent, on Tuesday.

Calabasas, Calif.-based Countrywide previously reported a $1.2 billion loss for the third quarter of last year, but management has forecast a profitable fourth quarter and 2008.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial are estimating Countrywide will post a fourth-quarter profit of 12 cents per share on revenue of $1.9 billion.

The company is due to report its fourth-quarter financial results on Jan. 29.

The company said Wednesday that mortgage applications waiting to be processed as of Dec. 31 were worth about $35 billion, down from $57.2 billion in the year-ago period.

In all, the lender originated 116,577 home loans in December, down from 212,566 in the same period of the previous year.

The company continued to shift away from risky subprime loans, with fundings totaling $6 million, down from $3.73 billion in December 2006. Subprime borrowers often have shaky credit repayment histories.

Home equity loan originations also declined last month to $1.26 billion, down 61.3 percent from $3.27 billion in the year-ago period.

Countrywide's slate of adjustable rate mortgages fell by 75 percent, to $3.68 billion from $15.22 billion a year earlier.

As of Dec. 31, the lender's mortgage loan servicing portfolio included about 9 million loans valued at $1.47 trillion, up about 14 percent from December of 2006. The company services loans originated by other lenders.

Wall Street Wraps Up '07 in Somber Mood

Wall Street Wraps Up 2007 in a Somber Mood, but Dow Has Annual Gain of More Than 6 Percent


NEW YORK Wall Street ended a painful year with another steep loss Monday as investors glumly anticipated that 2008 would bring more of the uncertainty and turbulence of 2007.
The Dow Jones industrials fell 101 points, the latest in a string of triple-digit moves that became commonplace in the just-ended year amid a continuum of bad news about housing, faltering mortgages and shrinking credit. Thanks to a big first-half advance, they managed to finish 2007 with a respectable increase of 6.43 percent -- not as large as the 16.29 percent jump in 2006, but a better performance than the modest loss in 2005.





It's tough to say what the primary market driver of 2008 will be, but the stock market faces a slew of threats: more adjustable-rate mortgage resets, a still-tight credit market and the possibility of accelerating inflation. But Leone said the fourth-quarter earnings season in January should shed some light on how U.S. companies are surviving the recent slowdown and credit crunch.

There was more downbeat news on housing Monday. The National Association of Realtors said November existing home sales rose 0.4 percent to an annual rate of 5 million -- the first rise in nine months. However, sales are 20 percent below where they were a year ago, and the median existing home price has dropped 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.


Still, there were some slivers of optimism Monday. The U.K.'s Observer newspaper reported Sunday that Merrill Lynch & Co. was in talks over the weekend to line up capital from investors in China and the Middle East in exchange for portions of the Wall Street firm.

Merrill, like many other financial houses, has seen its portfolio lose billions of dollar in value due to misplaced bets on mortgages. And as Citigroup Inc., UBS AG, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns Cos. have done, it has turned to investors in Asia for much-needed capital -- Merrill has already gotten $4.4 billion this month from a Singapore fund, which bought a 9.9 percent stake in the U.S. brokerage.



2007 was a remarkable year on Wall Street. The market began the year continuing the rally that propelled the Dow above 12,000 for the first time in October. Then, in late February, came a reminder that stocks were capable of turning tail and plunging -- a skid on China's stock market and an ominous economic outlook from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sent the Dow down 416 points in one day.

That panic didn't last long. In April, the Dow barreled above 13,000 for the first time and then glided past 14,000 in mid-July. But in late July, however, the market realized that the ongoing slump in housing, and a rise in mortgage foreclosures due to resetting adjustable-rate loans, was taking a toll across the credit markets.

Though the housing market started teetering as early as 2005, few people anticipated how much the downturn could affect the global financial system. Mortgages given to borrowers deemed "subprime" comprised only about an eighth of the $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market -- why would that rattle the world markets?

The problem was, these pieces of debt were chopped up, repackaged and woven into larger fixed-income instruments, on which banks and other investors made billion-dollar bets -- bets that were extremely profitable during the housing boom, but calamitous when borrowers couldn't keep up with their mortgage payments. When one slice of the instrument defaulted, it pulled the whole thing down with it.


In the midst of this turmoil, the credit markets all but seized up, and all these interconnected events pummeled stocks. The Dow suffered triple-digit drops, recoveries and then drops again as Wall Street stumbled through months of volatility reminiscent of the terrible days after the 2001 terror attacks.


Wall Street enters 2008 with that same concern, not to mention oil's surge this year of about 60 percent to nearly $100 a barrel, and the U.S. dollar's tumble to record lows against the euro. On Monday, the dollar rose against most other major currencies, gold prices fell, and crude oil prices slipped 2 cents to settle at $95.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"We've seen the return of volatility. I think that will be around for a while, and will govern trading for the new year," said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for I. A. Englander & Co. "Stock selection and strategy will play a very important part in the success of anybody who is trading going into the new year. This is not a time where you throw a dart at the board."